How to Evaluate that Poll You Just Saw
As the calendar turns past Labor Day in an election year, historically that represents the start of the campaign season for most Americans. Practically, though, between primaries and increased partisanship among elected officials and candidates, we voters have been subjected to campaign mode for quite some time. Now, September and October will produce an onslaught of polls of varying quality.
As election polls across the country become more prominent in our news feeds, it is important to determine how to evaluate the quality of a poll. Fortunately, my friend Emily Guskin at ABC News compiled for AAPOR a handy guide for journalists to employ when reviewing polls for reporting. To this excellent list I’d add one more element: who was surveyed.
When conducting a survey, the pollster can choose among many audiences depending on the intent and objectives of the survey; these are the three most common:
Adults – anyone age 18 or older is appropriate for general tracking of American attitudes and some issue-specific topics
Registered voters – self-identified or verified people who are registered to vote are the best audience to survey about elections as there remains portion of the adult population not registered to vote and therefore not eligible to do so
Likely voters – registered voters who self-describe their intention to vote when asked or are identified within a poll’s sample by means of applying modeling that may be derived from past verified voting statistics, demographics, behaviors or attitudes; as organizations survey people closer to an election, you should see more polls among likely voters or at least news reports identifying them as a subsample and comparing their responses to those of registered voters
Quality polls are an important reflection of the mood of the public and voters. Understanding where electoral races stand, what is driving vote choice, and what issues are contributing to the decision, coupled with reporting on candidate positions and actions, provide insights that inform voters before they cast their ballot. Ensuring that the polls reported are indeed high-quality and well-crafted is the responsibility not only of journalists but of everyone who relies on them as sources of information.
So, the next time you see a poll, pause and ask:
Who was surveyed?
How were they selected?
What questions were asked?
How was the poll conducted?
Are the results consistent with other high‑quality polls?
If the answers align with best practices, you’ve got a good survey and can be more confident in adding the knowledge gained to your decision-making process.
